No. 1316
Fluctuation Characteristics and Forecast Methods of Renewable Energy Power Output
Investigating R&D Committee of Forecasting Methods of Renewable Energy Power Output
Keyword : Wind Power Generation, Photovoltaic Power Generation, Hydro Power Generation, Forecasting, Weather
The power-output of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation widely varies depending on the weather conditions. Therefore, the high penetration of these generators may cause some negative impacts on the stable operation of electric power system. Because the power-output forecasting is a key technology and plays a very important role, highly accurate and reliable forecasting method should be employed.
Focusing on three kinds of renewable energy based generators, i.e. a hydro power generator, a wind power generator, and a photovoltaic power generationCthis technical report investigated and summarized the current status of forecasting methods and the related issues as follows.
-Needs of forecasting in electric power system and individual energy systems.
-Power-output fluctuation characteristics considering so-called smoothing effect in various temporal and spatial scales.
-Available data and numerical weather prediction method as a basic technology.
-Current status of hydro power generation forecasting and its application in electric power system
-Forecasting method of wind power generation and application in Japan and other countries
-Recent development of various insolation forecasting methods based on a numerical weather forecasting, or using satellite images and all-sky images.

©2007. The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan